A lot of small things are happening that are helping the forces of good hold elections and for those elections to be recognized by the international community. These are the rumors:
1) Zelaya changed his mind −
Mel now wants amnesty. One of the main reasons the dialogue is kind of stalled is because Mel Zelaya is now asking for amnesty for himself and for all of his people. This would include amnesty for everyone within Honduras and internationally and might be for several reasons, one of the reasons being....
2) Judge Baltazar Garzón changed his mind (see prior article and reader comment discussion here) −
Garzón told a group of people in the Spanish Embassy in Mexico that he was not going to go after Micheletti and his people. He said that it was a mistake for the armed forces to expel Mel from the country, but that he has analyzed the case and it is beneath him − that Mel is one big SOB and that he would be impossible to defend in a court of law.
3) The US may be changing their minds −
Micheletti's people are saying that they are getting mixed signals from the US State Department. Some people tell them that the elections will be recognized no matter what and another group tells them that the only way elections will be recognized is if Mel is reinstated.
This has Hondurans kind of confused. The Baker piece in the Washington Post really gave them hope. A top US diplomat called them Saturday saying that the State Department was giving serious consideration to Baker's suggestion, but that the talks must continue. "The talks MUST continue," not that a deal should be made, but that the talks MUST continue, so they say that the talks WILL continue until who knows when.
4) The congressional votes have not changed −
Micheletti and Saavedra (president of the congress) counted the votes Saturday and they have more than enough votes to not reinstate Mel, but Micheletti really believes, legally speaking, that it should be the court and not Congress (Zelaya's proposal) to decide whether to reinstate Zelaya or not. Rumor has it that Chávez petrodollars have been offered for votes.
5) Mel changed his mind about Spain −
He now wants to go back to Olancho (his home state).
6) Mel wants to change the constitution −
Zelaya is also suggesting that the next congress should reform the constitution in order to add a senate to the Honduran system of government. He says that it would be similar to the United States. There would be a lower house (the current 128-member congress which is determined due to the population of the states) and a senate in which each state would have 5 senators and that all ex-presidents would be Senators for Life.
7) Happier faces in Tegucigalpa −
Inside the Presidential Palace, the businessmen, and the politicians are more positive about the outcome each day. Everybody now seems to believe that whatever happens, Mel is done − politically, legally, with the USA, with Chavez, with the Liberal Party, with the Labor Movements, with everybody, but....
8) In a last ditch effort, Zelaya and his thugs plan to "unleash hell", in the form of riots and protests. They probably want a big show for the UN Human Rights folks who arrived today for three weeks. There are rumors that some may be armed. Yesterday, Chávez encouraged arming of the resistance.