Honduran Election 2013: Fear as a Strategy

2013 Honduras presidential ballot

Guest Blog by Jorge Gallardo Rius


The two leading contenders in the Honduran Election of 2013 have based their winning strategies on fear.

The leading contender according to recent polls, Juan Orlando Hernandez of the National Party, has identified himself with hawkish views and promotes his candidacy by harking on fear of the extreme left. While the leading leftist contender, Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, wife of deposed ex-president Zelaya and openly supported by South American ex-presidents, is promoting the fear of military repression.

The big issue for Mr. Hernandez at this point is trying to make permanent a military police that was originally slated as temporary while the crime rate remained high.  They argue that the extreme left wants this force to disappear.  Whereas, the Libre Party supporters went to the US Congress and tried to turn a land dispute into a case of state repression and a sign that the election process was tainted in order to strengthen their followers’ anti-constitutional beliefs.

The use of these fears as campaign themes is probably the result of an analysis of the mind frame of Hondurans after the events of 2009 in which a left-right polarization came to be, and the intent is to make the center disappear as an option to Honduran voters.  They want us to believe that there is no center, no real options in the middle, because 25% of probable voters, enough to decide the outcome haven’t decided yet and they just might go massively to the center.

But this fear based strategy has been known to backfire.  Initially it was working, but apparently, it was turned on too soon.  Many independent voters, tired of the never-ending conflicts, are fleeing both extremes and moving to the center.  After 8 years of reckless law-making by both sides while impunity reigns, and excessive expenditures that can’t be paid off, people are now realizing that we need a government of stability and austerity.

In the internal elections, the second strongest party votes was won by the centrist candidate Mauricio Villeda and by making the center disappear both sides are trying to steal votes from this candidate.  Mr. Villeda of the Liberal Party, unanimously recognized for his honesty and who, in all the recent polls proved to be the fastest growing movement, may become the one that benefits the most by the failure of the fear strategies and the convergence to the center.  He is backed by a strong organization with experience in past elections.

It just might be that Mr. Villeda peaks at the precise moment and produces an unexpected upset.

~~~~~~~~~

Jorge Gallardo Rius is a Honduran citizen who was born in La Ceiba and currently lives in Tegucigalpa. He studied in Louisiana, Houston, and Romania and is an Information Systems Analyst. Jorge's mother was a US citizen so he grew up speaking both languages at home. For a time, he wrote a weekly column on Education and Technology for an English-language weekly newspaper. He offers English/Spanish and Spanish/English translations. Sr. Gallardo can be contacted at jgallardo515 at yahoo.com and we welcome your comments here as well.

Memoria Gráfica de Honduras (Memories of Honduras)

La Ceiba beach front after the 1932 hurricane

I can't remember if I ever told my readers about the Memoria Gráfica de Honduras blog. I first discovered it in 2009 during the 'bad' time and sent the link to some of my Honduran friends but may not have posted it here during that hectic time. Oh, well, even if I have already written about it, it is worth repeating.

If you are Honduran, and even if you are not, you will love this blog. I promise. It includes a lot of history on various topics as well as the old photos, antique postal cards, money, stamps, and documents.

Honduras' postal service, 1897

The articles are in Spanish, but even if you don't read Spanish, you'll enjoy the photos. Click the first photo in each article to view a slide show of enlarged photos for a much better experience.

Click to read more >>

Crime hits close to home again

So beautiful and peaceful out there...

The other night we were awakened about 2:30 a.m. by two very loud gunshots. It sounded as if it was right outside our fence but sounds carry weirdly out here where we live. Sometimes during the day, I hear voices that sound like they are in my back yard but it is actually workers at a construction site about a block away. Since the shots woke us up, we were groggy trying to figure out where it was and what we should do. But there was no question that it was a gun and a big one at that. This was no birthday party fireworks.

Right after that a flatbed truck went racing by our house. I stayed low but peeked through the window expecting to see TVs and computers or construction materials in the back of it but there was nothing there. Maybe a neighbor or the construction guard chased off the robbers with his gun? Our guard dog was going crazy, but she was running along the fence, barking the angry warning bark, not the 'imminent danger' bark that would indicate that someone was in or trying to get in the property.

Click to read more >>